USD/JPY: technical analysis
Earlier forecast, expecting further growth confirmed. The price approached downtrend channel’s (blue) trend line and is likely to attempt to breach 81.80/90 level. Indicators are now more bullish, which gives reasons to expect 81.80/90 resistance level to be breached. If confirms, trading will hold above, indicating the beginning of another stage of a medium-term uptrend. The first stop on the way up may take place at 82.50/60 level, later within 83.40 – 83.00 resistance range. Until the price rises above 81.90 level, reversal down towards 80.60 is still a possibility. If the price fails to breach the tested barrier, trades will pullback to 81.20/30 level.
GBP/USD: technical analysis
1.6060-1.6090 resistance range held back further ascension like expected. While correcting, the price declined to 1.6000, but then retraced back up and breached 1.6060-1.6090 barrier. At the moment the "bulls" are attempting to hold above, trading is carried out at 1.6100/10 level. Indicators are now "bullish", which gives reasons to expect growth to the next strong resistance at 1.6160/70 level, which has already halted the uptrend at the end of 2011. However, a cluster of resistances above 1.6100 level may hold back ascension. Reversal towards 1.6000 level will trigger doubts of the bullish strength, decline below 1.5960/50 will be a signal for reversal.
EUR/USD: technical analysis
Trading stayed within 1.3160-1.3100/10 range and the price is now making attempts to climb higher. The pair is currently testing 1.3160/70 resistance. More indicators have turned up, suggesting further possible growth to the next key resistance at 1.3200/15 level. However, range trading looks to have more chances to continue with further possible widening to 1.3200/15 resistance. Bearsh trend is still dominating, targets are found at 1.2870/80, 1.2750, 1.2620 levels. Growth above 1.3210/15 blue dashed trend line and 1.3290/1.3300 resistance breakout will cancel the bearish scenario.
AUD/USD: technical analysis
The aussie corrected back to the 1.0345s as predicted. The strength of the earlier rally seems to indicate the possibility of a resumption of the previous up-move, with a target from the channel at 1.0485 and another target at 1.0525 which would give wave equality from the lows of the 11th. The other possibility – which is my preference - is that the current bear move is an Elliot 5th wave from the February highs and will continue lower and reach the former lows at 1.0238. The strong clusters of resistance lying just above the current price action also support this more bearish forecast.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
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