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    1. #1
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      Forex market analysis by Forex4you (updated daily) 20th April

      USD/JPY: technical analysis

      Earlier forecast, expecting further growth confirmed. The price approached downtrend channel’s (blue) trend line and is likely to attempt to breach 81.80/90 level. Indicators are now more bullish, which gives reasons to expect 81.80/90 resistance level to be breached. If confirms, trading will hold above, indicating the beginning of another stage of a medium-term uptrend. The first stop on the way up may take place at 82.50/60 level, later within 83.40 – 83.00 resistance range. Until the price rises above 81.90 level, reversal down towards 80.60 is still a possibility. If the price fails to breach the tested barrier, trades will pullback to 81.20/30 level.

      GBP/USD: technical analysis

      1.6060-1.6090 resistance range held back further ascension like expected. While correcting, the price declined to 1.6000, but then retraced back up and breached 1.6060-1.6090 barrier. At the moment the "bulls" are attempting to hold above, trading is carried out at 1.6100/10 level. Indicators are now "bullish", which gives reasons to expect growth to the next strong resistance at 1.6160/70 level, which has already halted the uptrend at the end of 2011. However, a cluster of resistances above 1.6100 level may hold back ascension. Reversal towards 1.6000 level will trigger doubts of the bullish strength, decline below 1.5960/50 will be a signal for reversal.



      EUR/USD: technical analysis

      Trading stayed within 1.3160-1.3100/10 range and the price is now making attempts to climb higher. The pair is currently testing 1.3160/70 resistance. More indicators have turned up, suggesting further possible growth to the next key resistance at 1.3200/15 level. However, range trading looks to have more chances to continue with further possible widening to 1.3200/15 resistance. Bearsh trend is still dominating, targets are found at 1.2870/80, 1.2750, 1.2620 levels. Growth above 1.3210/15 blue dashed trend line and 1.3290/1.3300 resistance breakout will cancel the bearish scenario.



      AUD/USD: technical analysis

      The aussie corrected back to the 1.0345s as predicted. The strength of the earlier rally seems to indicate the possibility of a resumption of the previous up-move, with a target from the channel at 1.0485 and another target at 1.0525 which would give wave equality from the lows of the 11th. The other possibility – which is my preference - is that the current bear move is an Elliot 5th wave from the February highs and will continue lower and reach the former lows at 1.0238. The strong clusters of resistance lying just above the current price action also support this more bearish forecast.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    2. #2
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      Technical analysis 23th April

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      The price continued its growth but failed to reach 1.6160/70 target, mentioned earlier, and met a strong resistance 1.6140 level. Then trading pulled back down to 1.6080/90 level. Indicators are now less bullish, which may be a signal for further correction. If the price breaches 1.6060/50 support, it will be a significant sign for a possible reversal down. Decline below 1.5960/50 level will say in favor of this assumption. However, the price still have good chances to grow up to 1.6160/70 level, wherefrom we expect a large-scale pullback to commence.



      USD/JPY: technical analysis
      Downtrend channel (blue) line held back the "bulls" and the price pulled back down. At the moment it resides at 81.00 level. 81.20/30 support breakout indicates strong "bearish" sentiment and gives reasons to expect a reversal to 80.50/60 with further possible decline towards 79.90 level. Indicators have turned down. SS, however, is being overbought, which means that the "bulls" still have chances to recommence growth. Therefore, the situation is now unclear - 81.80/90 resistance breakout will be a signal for the "bullish" victory. 80.60/50 support breakout will, on the other hand, indicate the "bearish" strength.

      USD/CHF: new wave higher
      The swissie gapped up this morning and is beginning a new move higher. It is possible this is part of a new Elliot wave and a resumption of the up-trend. We may be in an Elliot wave 4 after the strong up-thrust (wave 3 ) earlier. There is substantial resistance above the current highs, including the lower line of a triangle, the 100 and 200 4-hr MA's and a weekly pivot. It is possible a correction could continue unfolding with support at 0.9120 as a target down. After that, however, I see a resumption of the up-trend as wave 5 completes the first cycle. After another correction there may be a stronger break higher, to 0.9190 or above.

      EUR/USD: bear move progressing
      Trading stayed within the range, like expected, but the range widened to 1.3200/15 resistance. The price is currently pulling back down, trading is carried out at 1.3170/60. Indicators have turned more down, suggesting another decline towards consolidation interval support. If currently tested support is breached, trading will most likely reverse towards 1.3000/10 level and the price will commence another decline towards new minimums, mentioned earlier - 1.2870/80, 1.2750, 1.2620 targets. Growth above 1.3210/15 trend line, followed by 1.3290/1.3300 resistance breakout will cancel the "bearish" trend.


      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    3. #3
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      Technical analysis 24th April

      AUD/USD: technical analysis
      Strong 1.0300/10 support held back the "bears" for a while, but then the price continued its decline and tested earlier breached downtrend (blue) line around 1.0260/50 levels. Then trading pulled back up and is now carried out at 1.0290/80 level. Indicators are bearish, suggesting further possible decline. However, strong supports at current levels give reasons to be cautious about further dissension - the barrier on the way down is strong enough, so correction within 1.0360-1.0160/50 range is also quite a possibility. Decline below 1.0220/30 local minimum will indicate the bearish strength and give reasons to expect a plunge to 1.040/30 level. Growth above 1.0360 will, on the other hand, suggest a possible reversal towards the bullish trend in a medium term.

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      1.6060/50 support held back the "bearish" attacks and prevented the price from holding below. Trading recommenced growth and is now carried out at 1.6150/40 level, which means that the price has approached 1.6160/70 level, mentioned earlier as the target for growth. Indicators have turned more bullish, suggesting further growth. Only MACD divergence suggests a possible pullback, which gives reasons to anticipate a large scale correction from 1.6170/60 resistance. Decline below 1.6120 level will be the first signal for changes, 1.6090/80 support breakout will be the final indication of the upcoming pullback down. If, however, the price breaches 1.6170/60 resistance the bulls will have good chances to test 1.6300 level.

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      The price reached 1.3000/10 support, which triggered a pullback up, so trading is currently carried out at 1.3170/60 level. Indicators are turning back neutral, suggesting further sideways movement. Earlier forecasts, predicting that 1.3000 support breakout will open the way down to the new local minimums at 1.2870/80, 1.2750, 1.2620, have all chances to confirm. Should the price grow above 1.3250/60 level, hold in the uptrend channel (blue dashed-line) and breach 1.3290/1.3300 resistance, market sentiment will change to "bullish".

      EUR/JPY: technical analysis
      The euro-yen pair has consolidated in a sideways range since falling to the 106.30 lows on Monday. It will probably resume its bearish move lower soon with a downside target of 105.60 at the level of the 200-day MA and the weekly pivot. There is less chance it will go higher as the monthly pivot is capping gains at 106.92, however, a move higher might be expected to match the previous highs at 107.99 before extending to satisfy wave equality at 109.70.



      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    4. #4
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      Technical analysis 25th April

      USD/CHF: technical analysis
      The daily chart is showing a large triangular formation unfolding but no clues as to which way it will break. The 4hr chart has a large head and shoulders pattern with bearish connotations and if it breaks down it will probably reach support at the lower line of the triangle at 0.9050. The recovery bounce currently unfolding looks reasonably robust so there is also a possibility that it could reach resistance for the 50-day MA at the 0.9125 level, although at the moment there is still insufficient bias either way.

      USD/JPY: technical analysis
      The price keeps on testing a downtrend (blue) line as a resistance, but fails. Another bullish attack was held back by 81.50/60 resistance. Trading is currently carried out at 81.20/10 level. Indicators are unclear, but they seem to be turned more down, suggesting a possible decline to 80.60 level, which will give more grounds to anticipate another dissension to 79.90 level. 81.80/90 – 81.50/60 resistance range breakout will, on the other hand, indicate the bullish victory.

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      The price tested 1.6170/60 resistance, mentioned earlier and stayed close to this barrier on the way up. Trading is now carried out at 1.6150/40 levels. Indicators are bullish, suggesting further uptrend, although MACD divergence warns of a possible decline from the current local maximums. Level 1.6170/60 prevented further growth at the end of October 2011 and trading hasn't ascended above this level since then, which makes this barrier a long-term resistance. Yet, it the level is eventually breached and the price holds above, the next targets will be found at 1.6280/90 level. Large scale correction may commence from 1.6170/60 resistance. Decline below 1.6120 level will be the first signal for that. 1.6090/80 support breakout will indicate the beginning of previously expected pullback down.

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      The price climbed towards consolidation range's resistance and is now testing this barrier at 1.3210/00 level. Indicators have turned more up, which means that the uptrend is more possible. To prove their potential, however, the bulls have to push the price above 1.3250/60 level and hold in the uptrend channel sector (blue dashed line). Until then, downtrend has all chances to recommence, especially if the price breaches 1.3100 support.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    5. #5
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      Technical analysis 26th April

      AUD/USD: technical analysis
      The aussie has been rising in a channel and now looks poised to continue higher, with a hammer candlestick on the hourly chart sitting on the weekly pivot. This could open the way to a move up to the top of the channel at 1.0400/15. Longer-term charts also look bullish with the breakout from the channel on the daily still not having fulfilled its target at 1.0510. However given the pair has been falling within the channel and has not yet reached the bottom I still see the possibility of a move down to the lower line at 1.0350 if the hammer fails.

      EUR/USD: pull-back probable
      The rally in the euro has risen even higher defying forecasts that it would fall. The move must now still be a correction of the bear move from the early April highs rather than a new wave down as I originally thought - despite the apparently over-extended wave count. The correction has reached back a Fibonacci 61.8% of the previous move, and has put in a 2-bar reversal candlestick pattern on the hourly chart; in addition momentum is diverging considerably, so it seems likely, therefore that the the pair is ready for a pull-back from here – at least to support from the 50-day MA at 1.3205. Further, upside on the other hand might be expected to rally to resistance at 1.3275.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    6. #6
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      Technical analysis 27th April

      AUD/USD: technical analysis
      The aussie has been rallying strongly and it could carry on higher to the monthly pivot and wave equality target at around 1.0480. From there is is possible it may roll-over and resume its descent as the rally looks like a counter-trend short covering move which rises rapidly and then petters out at the highs. If it goes higher then the next target would be the 50% Fibonacci at 1.0550. Downside support kicks in at around 1.0370 where the 200-day MA is situated and long-term support.

      USD/JPY: technical analysis
      The price made 3 unsuccessful attempts to breach a downtrend line (blue line) and retraced back down. At the moment it's testing 80.60 support. Indicators have turned down suggesting the bearish sentiment, which means that currently tested level may be breached anytime soon and the price may decline further down to 79.90 level, mentioned earlier. Decline is unlikely, the bullish trend is dominating in a medium-term, so reversal to growth may commence anytime. 81.80/90 – 81.50/60 resistance breakout will be a signal for renewed bullish trend.

      USD/CHF: technical analysis
      There is substantial resistance at the daily highs from the 50-day MA and the monthly pivot and the price action has taken the form of a bearish shooting star candlestick so far today – although the day is not over yet. More downside could see a re-test of the lower line of the triangle on the daily chart at 0.9060. A break-out from the triangle would probably see a rapid move down to the 0.8800s at least. There is also a chance the triangle is completing its E-wave at the moment, and although it might overshoot the lower trend-line temporarily the longer term outlook would be bullish with a resumption of the up-trend, back to the upper trend-line at 1.9160 initially before a break higher.

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      Level 1.6200 held back further bullish growth, like expected. The price began to correct, successfully tested earlier breached resistance at 1.6170/60 level as a support and recommenced growth. At the moment trading is carried out at 1.6180/90 level. Indicators are still bullish, although MACD divergence suggests to be cautious. As the bullish trend is now considered dominating, we expect growth towards the next target at 1.6280 level. At the same time level 1.6200 looks to be strong enough to trigger a bigger pullback than on the last session and even become a starting point for a downtrend. Decline below 1.6060/50 support will be a serious sign for the bullish weakness.

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      1.3260/70 resistance easily held back the "bullish" attack and the price commenced another correction, like expected. Trading is currently carried out at 1.3170/60 level. Indicators are mostly bearish, suggesting further decline. 1.3160/70 support has been earlier considered as one of the key resistances on the way down, which breakout will indicate a reversal towards the downtrend. If trading holds below 1.3160 level, the next final resistance will be found at 1.3100/10 level and then within 1.3000 -1.2970 support range. The bulls will have chances for a medium-term growth only if the price breaches 1.3295/1.3300 – 1.3260/70 resistance range.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    7. #7
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      Technical analysis 30th April

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      The eurodollar pair has corrected 61.8% of the previous down move in early April and it could be about to resume its major down-trend. It is falling, but whether this is a short term correction or part of a bigger sell-off is too early to say. It will probably continue lower until it gets to 1.3208 at the lower channel line, where there is also support from the 50-day moving average. From there it may either recover to the top of the channel at 1.3285 or it will break out down to 1.3150.



      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    8. #8
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      Technical analysis 2th May

      USD/JPY: technical analysis
      Support at 89.80/70 level held back the bearish decline. The price bounced up to level 80.60, trading is currently carried out at 80.30/40 level, which gives reasons to anticipate a reversal to growth in a medium-term. However, the situation is still unclear as the price hasn't breached any of significant resistance levels yet - neither 80.60 nor 81.60/80. Therefore it's worth expecting correction within 80.60 -80.00/79.90 range. If the price breaches consolidation range's minimums around 79.65 level, the bearish trend will recommence.

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      Forecasts confirmed- the price made another attempt to get through above 1.6280 level, but only managed to reach 1.6300/05 line. Then it pulled back down and now resides at 1.6190/70 support. Indicators are bearish again, suggesting further decline. If currently tested support is breached, trading will most likely recommence its downtrend in a medium term. However, the final signal for reversal down will be received after 1.6120 and 1.6070/60 supports breakout. Until then the "bulls" have good chances to climb to 1.6320/30 resistance.

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      The price slipped towards consolidation range's support - level 1.3170/60. This level had been previously mentioned as one of the key barriers on the way down, which breakout could be the first signal for the bullish trend. Indicators are turning down, which gives reasons to expect the tested level to be breached anytime soon. If it happens, the next strong support will be found at 1.3100 level with further possible decline towards local minimums within 1.3000 -1.2970 range. If this barrier is breached, it will be the final signal for the bearish victory. The alternative scenario - medium-term growth - will be possible only if the price climbs above 1.3290/1.3300 resistance.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    9. #9
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      Technical analysis 3th May

      AUD/USD: technical analysis
      The fact that 1.0300/10 support has been breached gives more reasons to anticipate a possible decline towards 1.0220/30 local minimum. At the moment trading is carried out at 1.0280/70 level. Indicators are bearish, suggesting further downtrend and 1.0220/30 support test. At the same time, the fact that indicators are turned down gives reasons to anticipate even deeper decline. 1.0220/30 level breakout will open the way to the next strong support at 1.0140/30 level. However, the "bulls" still have good chances to recommence their trend. 1.0260 support is strong enough to trigger a bounce up. Medium-term reversal to growth will be possible if the price breaches 1.0440 level.

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      1.6160/70 strong support doesn't let the bears to decline further down. The pair is trading at 1.6170/75. Indicators suggest dominating bearish sentiment, which can be a signal for another decline. Nothing significant has changed in the pair's picture, so earlier forecasts are still relevant - if the tested support is breached, the price will commence a decline. 1.6120 and 1.6070/60 levels breakout will be the final signal for reversal down. At the same time, taking into account the strength of 1.6170/60 support, the bulls still have good chance to climb up to 1.6320/30 resistance.

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      Earlier forecasts confirmed - the price breached 1.3170/60 support and is now consolidating around 1.3130/50 levels. Indicators are turning more bearish, suggesting further possible decline, most likely towards 1.3000 -1.2970 range. Until then, the price has to first breach 1.3100 support. If it does, it'll be worth expecting local minimums in 1.3000/1.2970 range to be tested soon. Reversal up with a possible reversal towards a medium-term uptrend will be possible only if the price holds above 1.3290/1.3300 resistance.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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    10. #10
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      Technical analysis 4th May

      GBP/USD: technical analysis
      1.6160/70 support keeps on being a strong barrier, holding back the trading, which is now carried out at this level. The price is making numerous attempts to breach it, but fails. Indicators are more bearish, suggesting further decline with the first target found at 1.6120/10 level and then at 1.6070/60. If both barriers are breached, we'll be expecting a reversal down and a medium-term downtrend to commence. However, today's employment report, released out of the USS economy may influence the trades. If the price bounces from the currently tested level trading will rise to 1.6320/30 resistance. If this barrier is breached, the uptrend will recommence.

      EUR/USD: technical analysis
      The price kept on consolidating within earlier reached minimums. If trades escape from the bearish flag, which is currently being formed, the price will most likely drop towards 1.3060 support and then to 1.3000 level. Indicators say in favor of such scenario. As for the current session, it's worth taking into account the US upcoming employment report, which can become a significant driver for the market. Therefore, we suggest being careful and keep an eye on open positions. Medium-term uptrend is a possibility, but only if sentiment changes and the price holds above 1.3290/1.3300 resistance.

      Analysis prepared by:
      Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
      Forex4you analysts

      Disclaimer:
      Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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